Morning Briefing
Global bond markets are flashing red — US borrowing costs have hit a 24-year high as a ferocious sell-off intensifies, with UK 30-year gilt yields briefly cracking 6% for the first time since 1998. If governments can't borrow cheaply, everything from rate cuts to tech valuations gets repriced. This is the macro story that's quietly running underneath everything else today.
What Matters Today
- Bond market meltdown: US borrowing costs at a 24-year high, driven by growing fears the US deficit is simply unsustainable. The ripple effects are global — and Australia isn't immune. Guardian AU
- Anthropic vs Australian media: Anthropic is lobbying for an opt-out model for Australian content scrapers, while the ABC and SBS are pushing back hard, warning of "cannibalisation" of public interest journalism. The AI copyright battle is landing on our shores. Guardian AU
- Man City found guilty: Manchester City has been found guilty of systematically breaching the Premier League's financial rules for nearly a decade. Fines, points deductions, or even expulsion are all on the table — potentially the biggest structural shake-up in EPL history. ABC News
- FlyDubai stabbing: Netanyahu says the Omani co-pilot who stabbed the captain on an Israel-bound flight had undergone "Islamic radical indoctrination." Saudi security is interrogating him. A near-miss mass casualty event that's going to reopen aviation security debates. Guardian AU
- NSW's biggest-ever coal mine greenlit: The largest coal project in NSW history has been approved, with Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean warning the planning commission ignored climate-related economic damage. A significant tension between energy politics and net zero commitments. Guardian AU
- Federal agency hacks: Two US federal agencies breached in a single month, with a "bonanza" of sensitive data spilled. The cadence of these incidents is accelerating and the exposure is significant. Ars Technica
- Future Fund pay revealed: Eleven staff at Australia's Future Fund are paid over $1 million — one pocketing $1.5m — all significantly more than the Prime Minister. Expect this to get some political traction. Guardian AU
Markets
The ASX 200 took a brutal hit, down nearly 5% — almost certainly reflecting the global bond sell-off and flight from risk assets, with the AUD also sliding 3.4% against the USD to sit at $0.693. Meanwhile, US markets painted a completely different picture: the NASDAQ surged nearly 3% and the S&P crept higher, suggesting US tech investors are shrugging off macro jitters for now — possibly rotating into growth as rate expectations shift.
Gold dropped 4.3%, which is unusual during a bond panic and suggests some forced deleveraging happening. The standout mover is crypto: Bitcoin jumped 9.3% to $84.6k and Ethereum ripped 11.6% to $2,697 — risk-on behaviour that reads like a flight from fiat rather than traditional safe havens. Watch this space.
Worth a Read
- RAM shortage through 2028: Memory executives are warning prices for 2027 chips are already "much higher than 2026 prices" — if you're building anything hardware-dependent, this is relevant supply chain context. The AI infrastructure buildout is eating all available capacity. Ars Technica
- Bank of England's AI bubble warning: BoE Governor Andrew Bailey says he's watching the wave of AI investment "very carefully" for signs of market instability. When a central banker starts using the word "shock" unprompted, it's worth clocking. BBC Tech
- South Park takes on AI and billionaires: The latest episode goes after the obscenely wealthy — including, awkwardly, Parker and Stone themselves. The Guardian's review notes the uncomfortable irony of billionaires satirising billionaires. Worth 20 minutes of your evening. Guardian AU
- What we think we know about the Nazis is wrong: German artist Philipp Ruch argues that viewing Hitler's rise through the lens of the Third Reich distorts how fascism actually wins elections. Unsettling and timely — a long read that earns its length. Guardian AU