Morning Briefing
The US and Iran have struck a landmark peace deal — Trump's declaring it "all signed" at the G7, Tehran gets to sell oil again, and the Middle East is exhaling cautiously. It's the biggest geopolitical shift in years, and the markets are absolutely loving it.
What Matters Today
- US-Iran peace deal signed: Trump announced the deal is done at the G7 — Iran can resume oil exports, a memorandum of understanding is expected to be formalised Friday. Tehran is spinning it as a win; most Iranians just want cheaper petrol and no more war. Watch oil prices and how Israel responds. Guardian AU
- US marines to stockpile weapons on Australian soil: Tender documents reveal plans for a permanent US military weapons cache in Victoria, deliberately positioned beyond the range of Chinese missiles. Classic AUKUS-era escalation, and it'll fire up the sovereignty debate again. SBS News
- RBA holds rates — for now: The Reserve Bank paused for the first time this year, but Governor Michele Bullock made clear more hikes remain on the table if inflation doesn't cooperate. Not a pivot — just a breath. SBS News
- Russian frigate fires warning shots at British yacht in the Channel: A Russian warship fired within 500 metres of a British pleasure yacht near the Isle of Wight. With Russia already under intense scrutiny post-Ukraine, this is a genuinely alarming escalation in European waters. BBC World
- Gout Gout goes head-to-head with Noah Lyles: Australia's sprint prodigy pushed world champion Lyles hard in their first-ever race together. The kid is the real deal — remember this name. ABC News
- Cabo Verde holds Spain 0-0 at the World Cup: Tournament debutants Cabo Verde — one of whom was apparently found via LinkedIn — drew with European champions Spain. Genuinely one of the great World Cup shocks. ABC News
- ATO call centre workers paid 40% less than public service peers: A Fair Work submission ahead of "same job, same pay" hearings reveals outsourced ATO workers are being significantly underpaid — and the gap widens at senior levels. A sleeper story with real policy teeth. Guardian AU
Markets
Everything is ripping on the back of the US-Iran deal — cheaper oil on the horizon means lower inflation expectations, and markets are running with it. The ASX 200 surged 3.32% to 8,917, the Nikkei went absolutely ballistic up 13%, and the S&P 500 climbed 1.39%. The AUD slipped 2% against the USD to 0.707, possibly reflecting the RBA hold and a stronger greenback on risk-on flows. Gold sold off hard (-4.43%) as the safe-haven premium evaporated, and crypto got smoked — Bitcoin dropped nearly 16% to $65,800 and Ethereum shed 17.6%, suggesting the crypto bid was partly a geopolitical hedge that's now unwinding fast.
Worth a Read
- 'Grandpa in a bunker': Is Putin losing control? — The Guardian's Russian affairs reporter Pjotr Sauer on Putin's growing isolation and paranoia as ordinary Russians grow restless over war casualties and a struggling economy. Timely given the Channel warship incident. Guardian AU
- Scientists trying to refreeze the Arctic — Sounds mad, but early results are showing promise. A team is testing sea ice thickening near an Inuit town in Canada. One of those "wait, this might actually work" stories worth 5 minutes of your time. Guardian AU
- The Mason Lee case and Queensland's broken child protection system — Police ignored repeated warnings about a violent man before he killed a toddler. The Guardian argues this wasn't a failure of the system — it was the system working exactly as designed. Confronting and important. Guardian AU
- One Nation's health policies under fire from experts — Former Howard-era advisers are warning Pauline Hanson's party is importing Trump's health agenda wholesale, with policies built on misconceptions that could cost taxpayers significantly. Worth watching ahead of Hanson's National Press Club address today. Guardian AU