The Daily Digest

Markets exploded overnight after signs of an Iran-US deal on the Strait of Hormuz eased oil supply fears, sending Wall Street and Tokyo into a frenzy — the NASDAQ ripped 7.2% in a single session. Meanwhile back home, NSW pulled off one of the greatest State of Origin comebacks in history, and the AI anxiety gripping the tech world is reaching a fever pitch.

What Matters Today

• Iran-US deal taking shape: Iran says a draft agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end its naval blockade — this is almost certainly what lit the rocket under global equities overnight. Still fragile, still unconfirmed by Washington. Guardian AU
• NDIS cuts deeper than advertised: Leaked government modelling reveals new eligibility rules will remove 241,000 participants from the scheme by 2031. That's not a trim — that's a structural gutting, and it barely made a splash in the budget coverage. Guardian AU
• AI job cuts backlash turns ugly: A CEO who announced mass AI-driven layoffs received threats against his family. Separately, graduation students booed pro-AI speakers, and a viral thread is diagnosing tech execs with "AI psychosis." The vibe has shifted. r/technology
• Canada ditches US military suppliers: Ottawa is ordering its next military plane fleet from Sweden — a pointed signal that US reliability as a defence partner is being quietly reassessed by its closest allies. r/worldnews
• Aboriginal rock shelter bulldozed for NSW power lines: Contractors building transmission lines for the Central-West Orana renewable energy zone destroyed a heritage site. The renewables transition is creating its own set of ugly trade-offs. Guardian AU
• Hamas military chief killed in Gaza strike: Israel says it killed Mohammed Odeh — the second leader of Hamas's armed wing to die in strikes this month — in a strike on a residential building in Gaza City. BBC World
• State of Origin I — Blues win in the last 90 seconds: James Tedesco scored after a Kalyn Ponga send-off to complete a 20-point comeback. Queensland had this won. Expect Queensland fury to dominate sports discourse all week. ABC News

Markets

The Iran-Hormuz deal speculation was rocket fuel for global equities — S&P 500 up 4.8%, NASDAQ up 7.2%, Nikkei up 7.4%. Oil supply anxiety has been one of the key macro overhangs, so any progress on Hormuz unlocks a huge relief rally. The ASX missed the party, closing down 0.56% before the overnight surge — expect a strong open tomorrow. Gold sold off hard (-4%), classic risk-on rotation as cash moved from safe havens into equities. Bitcoin slipped 2.9% and Ethereum got hammered down 10.6%, which is oddly disconnected from the broader risk appetite — crypto might be dealing with its own flow issues. AUD/USD holding flat at 0.714, which feels surprisingly subdued given the risk-on environment.

Worth a Read

• Surveillance pricing is coming for you — 72% of Americans want it banned, and electronic shelf labels (the dynamic pricing screens replacing paper price tags at supermarkets) are the Trojan horse. Australians should pay attention — this is already being piloted locally.
• Musk's gas-burning AI flip — 62 unpermitted gas turbines powering Grok data centres. The man who built his brand on solar is now one of the biggest fossil fuel burners in tech. The hypocrisy argument here is hard to wave away.
• Netherlands blocks US takeover of DigiD operator — The Dutch government stopped an American acquisition of Solvinity, the company running DigiD — their national digital identity infrastructure. Quietly one of the most important digital sovereignty moves in months.
• Steam Deck jumps $300 — The 1TB OLED model now costs $949 USD. Tariff pressure is visibly flowing through to hardware prices. If you were on the fence, you already missed the window.